AVIATION EMISSIONS // explained
CO₂ ~34% Contrail cirrus ~57% NOx (net) ~17%

What aviation emissions do to the climate

Carbon prices only cover CO₂. Contrails and NOx add more warming, and rules for them are starting to form. Pick one to see how it works.

Ice clouds that form behind aircraft in cold, humid air. Each one lasts only hours, but together they are the largest warming effect. They are also the least certain.

Lasts
Hours
Priced today
Not yet. EU monitoring since 2025
How sure
Least sure
Could be a third of this, or nearly double.

Carbon dioxide from burning fuel. It stays in the air for centuries, so each flight keeps warming the planet long after it lands. It is the only part priced today.

Lasts
Centuries
Priced today
Yes. EU ETS, UK ETS, CORSIA
How sure
Very sure
Within about 10% either way.

Nitrogen oxides make ozone, which warms, and remove methane, which cools. The warming is larger, so the net effect is warming.

Lasts
Weeks to a decade
Priced today
Not yet
How sure
Not very sure
Could be close to zero, or two thirds more.

Share of aviation's warming in 2018. Source: Lee et al. (2021). Shares add to just over 100% because the total also includes a small cooling effect.

Clear numbers on what aviation's carbon rules cost.

We help airlines, lessors and lenders see what EU ETS, UK ETS and CORSIA cost today, and how that changes with new aircraft, SAF and contrail rules.

Book a briefing Try the free tools
Contrails spread into cirrus cloud. Together they warm the planet more than aviation's CO₂ does.
Briefing
What the EU's non-CO₂ rules mean for airlines
Explainer
EU ETS or CORSIA: which scheme covers a flight?
Tool
GTF groundings: what they cost a fleet

What we do

01

Carbon cost exposure

What a fleet pays under EU ETS and UK ETS today, and how that moves with new aircraft or fuel.

02

CORSIA obligations

Which routes are covered, how many offsets are due, and what that may cost over time.

03

SAF and contrail policy

Plain briefings on fuel mandates and the new rules taking shape for non-CO₂ effects.

Tools and research

Free to use. Built on public data and the same methods we use in client work.

Contrails and non-CO₂

How contrails and NOx add to aviation's warming, and the EU rules now forming to measure them.

CORSIA calculator

EU ETS and CORSIA side by side, and which one covers a given flight.

Policy map

EU ETS, UK ETS and CORSIA by country, so you can see which scheme applies to a flight.

Exposure calculator

What the GTF engine groundings cost a fleet: lease costs, extra fuel burn and disruption.

Got a question about carbon rules?

Drop us a line about what you're working on and we'll set up a quick chat. No prep needed.

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